NV-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Horsford 94% chance
- Steven Horsford (D)-2% past 7 days94%
- Cody Whipple (R)+2% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Horsford94%
- Whipple4%
Chance over time, past month: Horsford from 93% to 94%; Whipple from 5% to 4%.
| Date | Horsford | Whipple |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 94% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Horsford by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Horsford +4.8 to Horsford +25
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Whipple by 5+ | 2% |
| Whipple by 0–5 | 1% |
| Horsford by 0–5 | 7% |
| Horsford by 5–10 | 13% |
| Horsford by 10–15 | 14% |
| Horsford by 15–20 | 36% |
| Horsford by 20–25 | 14% |
| Horsford by 25+ | 11% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Steven Horsford (D)
More in Nevada
Ballot measures
- Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?Yes 99%