NV-02 House forecast
Lean Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 10:00 PM ET in most of Nevada, 9:00 PM ET in Mountain-time West Wendover
Flippo 69% chance
- Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D)+6% past 7 days31%
- David Flippo (R)-4% past 7 days69%
Chance over time
- Benitez-Thompson31%
- Flippo69%
Chance over time, past month: Benitez-Thompson from 24% to 31%; Flippo from 75% to 69%.
| Date | Benitez-Thompson | Flippo |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 25% | 75% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 23% | 76% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 20% | 80% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 26% | 73% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 31% | 69% |
Projected margin
Most likely Flippo by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Flippo +14.7 to Benitez-Thompson +2.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Flippo by 18+ | 7% |
| Flippo by 15–18 | 3% |
| Flippo by 12–15 | 3% |
| Flippo by 9–12 | 12% |
| Flippo by 6–9 | 13% |
| Flippo by 3–6 | 22% |
| Flippo by 0–3 | 14% |
| Benitez-Thompson by 0–3 | 17% |
| Benitez-Thompson by 3–6 | 5% |
| Benitez-Thompson by 6+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
Context
- Held by Rep. Mark E. Amodei (R)
More in Nevada
Ballot measures
- Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?Yes 99%