OR Governor forecast
Likely Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time: 11:00 PM ET in most of Oregon, 10:00 PM ET in Mountain-time Malheur County. Every voter gets a mail ballot
Kotek 84% chance
- Tina Kotek (D)+9% past 7 days84%
- Christine Drazan (R)-10% past 7 days16%
Chance over time
- Kotek84%
- Drazan16%
Chance over time, past month: Kotek from 86% to 84%; Drazan from 14% to 16%.
| Date | Kotek | Drazan |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 88% | 14% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 82% | 18% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 84% | 24% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 76% | 25% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 84% | 16% |
Projected margin
Most likely Kotek by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Drazan +5.2 to Kotek +14.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Drazan by 6+ | 8% |
| Drazan by 3–6 | 7% |
| Drazan by 0–3 | 9% |
| Kotek by 0–3 | 10% |
| Kotek by 3–6 | 11% |
| Kotek by 6–9 | 19% |
| Kotek by 9–12 | 18% |
| Kotek by 12–15 | 12% |
| Kotek by 15–18 | 3% |
| Kotek by 18+ | 4% |