MI Governor forecast
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Michigan, 9:00 PM ET in four Upper Peninsula counties
Benson 93% chance
- Jocelyn Benson (D)-3% past 7 days93%
- John James (R)+3% past 7 days7%
Chance over time
- Benson93%
- James7%
Key moments
· No single event explains this move
No clear event found
No candidate entry or exit, endorsement, or widely reported poll explaining the drop for John James was found for the Michigan governor's race from Nov. 25 to Dec. 1, 2025.
· What happened
Independent Mike Duggan left the governor's race
Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan ended his independent campaign for Michigan governor on May 21, citing slipping poll numbers, limited fundraising and a national climate he said had turned toward Democrats.
WILX: Mike Duggan drops out of Michigan's gubernatorial race (opens in a new tab) · The Detroit News: Mike Duggan ends independent campaign for Michigan governor (opens in a new tab)
Chance over time, past month: Benson from 92% to 93%; James from 9% to 7%.
| Date | Benson | James |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 93% | 9% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 92% | 7% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 93% | 7% |
Projected margin
Most likely Benson by 9–12 · 8 in 10: James +1.3 to Benson +17.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| James by 6+ | 3% |
| James by 3–6 | 4% |
| James by 0–3 | 5% |
| Benson by 0–3 | 6% |
| Benson by 3–6 | 8% |
| Benson by 6–9 | 19% |
| Benson by 9–12 | 22% |
| Benson by 12–15 | 16% |
| Benson by 15–18 | 9% |
| Benson by 18+ | 8% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Democrats.
More in Michigan
Ballot measures
- Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?No 90%