MI-01 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Michigan, 9:00 PM ET in four Upper Peninsula counties
Bergman 88% chance
- Callie Barr (D)0% past 7 days11%
- Jack Bergman (R)-2% past 7 days88%
Chance over time
- Barr11%
- Bergman88%
Chance over time, past month: Barr from 8% to 11%; Bergman from 92% to 88%.
| Date | Barr | Bergman |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 9% | 91% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 9% | 90% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 11% | 88% |
Projected margin
Most likely Bergman by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Bergman +22.4 to Bergman +5.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bergman by 25+ | 5% |
| Bergman by 20–25 | 11% |
| Bergman by 15–20 | 27% |
| Bergman by 10–15 | 27% |
| Bergman by 5–10 | 21% |
| Bergman by 0–5 | 5% |
| Barr by 0–5 | 2% |
| Barr by 5+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Jack Bergman (R)
More in Michigan
Ballot measures
- Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?No 90%