MI Senate forecast
Likely Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Michigan, 9:00 PM ET in four Upper Peninsula counties
El-Sayed 70% chance
- Abdul El-Sayed (D)0% past 7 days70%
- Mike Rogers (R)-1% past 7 days30%
Chance over time
- El-Sayed70%
- Rogers30%
Key moments
· Around this time
Rogers skips televised Michigan Senate event
Republican Mike Rogers did not attend a Sept. 15 Fox 2 Detroit event that Democrat Abdul El-Sayed took part in alone; Rogers said his campaign never agreed to the event, describing it as a town hall rather than a debate.
Chance over time, past month: El-Sayed from 67% to 70%; Rogers from 34% to 30%.
| Date | El-Sayed | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 75% | 27% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 73% | 28% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 73% | 28% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 69% | 31% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 70% | 31% |
Projected margin
Most likely Rogers by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Rogers +2.7 to El-Sayed +8.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rogers by 12+ | 1% |
| Rogers by 9–12 | 1% |
| Rogers by 6–9 | <1% |
| Rogers by 3–6 | 6% |
| Rogers by 0–3 | 28% |
| El-Sayed by 0–3 | 23% |
| El-Sayed by 3–6 | 20% |
| El-Sayed by 6–9 | 12% |
| El-Sayed by 9–12 | 7% |
| El-Sayed by 12+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 9 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where El-Sayed wins, Democrats win the Senate in 76 of 100. Where Rogers wins, in 37 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Democrats.
More in Michigan
Ballot measures
- Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?No 90%