OH Senate forecast
Polls close
Brown 64% chance
- Sherrod Brown (D)+3% past 7 days64%
- Jon Husted (R)-3% past 7 days36%
Chance over time
- Brown64%
- Husted36%
Key moments
· Around this time · lead changed
Two polls showed Brown narrowly ahead of Husted
Two Ohio Senate polls made public around March 10 showed Sherrod Brown narrowly ahead of Sen. Jon Husted, 51-47 and 47-45; one was sponsored by an environmental group and the other came from a Republican-aligned firm.
Newsweek (1): Republican's Chances of Losing to Sherrod Brown in Ohio Senate Race—Poll (opens in a new tab) · Newsweek (2): Republicans Dealt Double Polling Blow in Ohio Senate Race (opens in a new tab)
· No single event explains this move · lead changed
No clear event found
No Ohio Senate development in the window could be tied to the shift in established reporting.
Chance over time, past month: Brown from 60% to 64%; Husted from 39% to 36%.
| Date | Brown | Husted |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 63% | 36% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 60% | 43% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 62% | 39% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 62% | 40% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 64% | 36% |
Projected margin
Most likely Husted by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Husted +2.6 to Brown +9.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Husted by 12+ | <1% |
| Husted by 9–12 | 2% |
| Husted by 6–9 | 1% |
| Husted by 3–6 | 4% |
| Husted by 0–3 | 24% |
| Brown by 0–3 | 23% |
| Brown by 3–6 | 14% |
| Brown by 6–9 | 20% |
| Brown by 9–12 | 7% |
| Brown by 12+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 9 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Brown wins, Democrats win the Senate in 78 of 100. Where Husted wins, in 40 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.