OH-06 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Rulli 97% chance
- Elizabeth Kirtley (D)0% past 7 days3%
- Michael Rulli (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Kirtley3%
- Rulli97%
Chance over time, past month: Kirtley from 5% to 3%; Rulli from 95% to 97%.
| Date | Kirtley | Rulli |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Rulli by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Rulli +35.2 to Rulli +14.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rulli by 40+ | 3% |
| Rulli by 35–40 | 8% |
| Rulli by 30–35 | 18% |
| Rulli by 25–30 | 24% |
| Rulli by 20–25 | 23% |
| Rulli by 15–20 | 14% |
| Rulli by 10–15 | 4% |
| Rulli by 0–10 | 3% |
| Kirtley wins | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-06 member was elected on different lines.