NC-13 House forecast
Likely Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Knott 84% chance
- Paul Barringer (D)+2% past 7 days16%
- Brad Knott (R)-1% past 7 days84%
Chance over time
- Barringer16%
- Knott84%
Chance over time, past month: Barringer from 16% to 16%; Knott from 84% to 84%.
| Date | Barringer | Knott |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 14% | 84% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 14% | 84% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
Projected margin
Most likely Knott by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Knott +18.7 to Barringer +0.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Knott by 25+ | 4% |
| Knott by 20–25 | 5% |
| Knott by 15–20 | 2% |
| Knott by 10–15 | 38% |
| Knott by 5–10 | 22% |
| Knott by 0–5 | 19% |
| Barringer by 0–5 | 4% |
| Barringer by 5+ | 6% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-13 member was elected on different lines.