NC-08 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Harris 95% chance
- Colby Watson (D)-2% past 7 days4%
- Mark Harris (R)+1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Watson4%
- Harris95%
Chance over time, past month: Watson from 3% to 4%; Harris from 97% to 95%.
| Date | Watson | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Harris by 9–12 · 8 in 10: Harris +18 to Harris +1.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Harris by 18+ | 11% |
| Harris by 15–18 | 14% |
| Harris by 12–15 | 13% |
| Harris by 9–12 | 31% |
| Harris by 6–9 | 13% |
| Harris by 3–6 | 6% |
| Harris by 0–3 | 3% |
| Watson by 0–3 | 8% |
| Watson by 3–6 | <1% |
| Watson by 6+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-08 member was elected on different lines.