NC-01 House forecast
Likely Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Davis 72% chance
- Don Davis (D)+5% past 7 days72%
- Laurie Buckhout (R)-6% past 7 days27%
Chance over time
- Davis72%
- Buckhout27%
Chance over time, past month: Davis from 64% to 72%; Buckhout from 38% to 27%.
| Date | Davis | Buckhout |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 64% | 38% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 63% | 38% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 62% | 37% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 67% | 33% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 72% | 27% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Davis wins, Democrats win the House in 95 of 100. Where Buckhout wins, in 84 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-01 member was elected on different lines.