NC-03 House forecast
Likely Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Murphy 81% chance
- Raymond Smith Jr. (D)+3% past 7 days20%
- Greg Murphy (R)-3% past 7 days81%
Chance over time
- Smith20%
- Murphy81%
Chance over time, past month: Smith from 13% to 20%; Murphy from 86% to 81%.
| Date | Smith | Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 13% | 87% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 18% | 83% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 17% | 84% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 20% | 81% |
Projected margin
Most likely Murphy by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Murphy +18 to Smith +2.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Murphy by 18+ | 11% |
| Murphy by 15–18 | 5% |
| Murphy by 12–15 | 3% |
| Murphy by 9–12 | 14% |
| Murphy by 6–9 | 15% |
| Murphy by 3–6 | 16% |
| Murphy by 0–3 | 18% |
| Smith by 0–3 | 8% |
| Smith by 3–6 | 8% |
| Smith by 6+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-03 member was elected on different lines.