NC-06 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
McDowell 90% chance
- Cyril Jefferson (D)+2% past 7 days10%
- Addison McDowell (R)-1% past 7 days90%
Chance over time
- Jefferson10%
- McDowell90%
Chance over time, past month: Jefferson from 8% to 10%; McDowell from 92% to 90%.
| Date | Jefferson | McDowell |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 9% | 92% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 10% | 90% |
Projected margin
Most likely McDowell by 15–18 · 8 in 10: McDowell +17.7 to McDowell +1.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| McDowell by 18+ | 8% |
| McDowell by 15–18 | 18% |
| McDowell by 12–15 | 14% |
| McDowell by 9–12 | 14% |
| McDowell by 6–9 | 18% |
| McDowell by 3–6 | 8% |
| McDowell by 0–3 | 16% |
| Jefferson by 0–3 | 2% |
| Jefferson by 3–6 | 1% |
| Jefferson by 6+ | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-06 member was elected on different lines.