NC-12 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Adams 96% chance
- Alma Adams (D)-1% past 7 days96%
- Jack Codiga (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Adams96%
- Codiga2%
Chance over time, past month: Adams from 97% to 96%; Codiga from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Adams | Codiga |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Adams by 55–60 · 8 in 10: Adams +36.6 to Adams +60.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Codiga wins | <1% |
| Adams by 0–25 | 3% |
| Adams by 25–35 | 5% |
| Adams by 35–40 | 5% |
| Adams by 40–45 | 5% |
| Adams by 45–50 | 10% |
| Adams by 50–55 | 28% |
| Adams by 55–60 | 33% |
| Adams by 60–65 | 5% |
| Adams by 65+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-12 member was elected on different lines.