AZ-06 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Mendoza 86% chance
- JoAnna Mendoza (D)+4% past 7 days86%
- Juan Ciscomani (R)-5% past 7 days14%
Chance over time
- Mendoza86%
- Ciscomani14%
Chance over time, past month: Mendoza from 83% to 86%; Ciscomani from 18% to 14%.
| Date | Mendoza | Ciscomani |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 83% | 18% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 83% | 18% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 82% | 18% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 82% | 19% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 86% | 14% |
Projected margin
Most likely Mendoza by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Ciscomani +0.8 to Mendoza +13.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ciscomani by 6+ | 1% |
| Ciscomani by 3–6 | 1% |
| Ciscomani by 0–3 | 12% |
| Mendoza by 0–3 | 16% |
| Mendoza by 3–6 | 24% |
| Mendoza by 6–9 | 18% |
| Mendoza by 9–12 | 13% |
| Mendoza by 12–15 | 13% |
| Mendoza by 15–18 | 1% |
| Mendoza by 18+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Mendoza wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Ciscomani wins, in 80 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
More in Arizona
Ballot measures
- Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 55%
- Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?Yes 63%
- Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?Yes 68%
- Arizona passes traffic camera ballot measure?Yes 88%