Arizona 2026 midterms
Updated
Polls close · Tuesday, Nov 3
Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
13 days away. Results appear on this page as each race is decided.
Closest races
Statewide races
1 raceGovernorHeld by DemocratsSafe Dem94%Katie Hobbs (D)7%Andy Biggs (R)Hobbs +5% past 7 daysFull forecast
Senate
Neither of Arizona’s Senate seats is on the ballot in 2026.
Probabilities from public sources, collected by Helm's data infrastructure
House delegation
9 seats- Held today
- D 3 · R 6
- Expected seats
- D 5.1 · R 3.9
- Each district’s chance, added up
- Safe D 4
- Likely D 1
- Likely R 1
- Safe R 3
Districts on the 2024 lines. Flip: the favourite, or the winner, is not the party holding the seat.
- District 01Shah 82% chanceprojected Flip to DemocratsLikely D
- District 02Crane 72% chanceLikely R
- District 03Ansari 99% chanceSafe D
- District 04Stanton 96% chanceSafe D
- District 05Lamb 90% chanceSafe R
- District 06Mendoza 86% chanceprojected Flip to DemocratsSafe D
- District 07Grijalva 97% chanceSafe D
- District 08Hamadeh 88% chanceSafe R
- District 09Gosar 95% chanceSafe R
Ballot measures
4 measuresBanning noncitizens from voting
55% chance yes
Restricting transgender school and athletic access
63% chance yes
Drug cartel measure
68% chance yes
Traffic camera measure
88% chance yes
Probabilities from public sources, collected by Helm's data infrastructure
News and signals in Arizona
Each item links to its source.