AZ Governor forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Hobbs 94% chance
- Katie Hobbs (D)+5% past 7 days94%
- Andy Biggs (R)-5% past 7 days7%
Chance over time
- Hobbs94%
- Biggs7%
Key moments
· No single event explains this move
No clear event found
No candidate entry or exit, widely reported poll, or major race news was found for the Arizona governor's race from Oct. 21 to Oct. 25, 2025.
· No single event explains this move
No clear event found
No candidate change, major poll, endorsement or ruling in the Arizona governor race was found dated Feb. 6-10, 2026.
Chance over time, past month: Hobbs from 89% to 94%; Biggs from 12% to 7%.
| Date | Hobbs | Biggs |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 89% | 12% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 89% | 11% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 91% | 10% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 89% | 12% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 94% | 7% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hobbs by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Hobbs +1.2 to Hobbs +16.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Biggs by 6+ | 1% |
| Biggs by 3–6 | 3% |
| Biggs by 0–3 | 5% |
| Hobbs by 0–3 | 4% |
| Hobbs by 3–6 | 11% |
| Hobbs by 6–9 | 28% |
| Hobbs by 9–12 | 21% |
| Hobbs by 12–15 | 14% |
| Hobbs by 15–18 | 10% |
| Hobbs by 18+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Democrats.
More in Arizona
Ballot measures
- Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 55%
- Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?Yes 63%
- Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?Yes 68%
- Arizona passes traffic camera ballot measure?Yes 88%