AZ-07 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Grijalva 97% chance
- Adelita Grijalva (D)-2% past 7 days97%
- Daniel Butierez (R)0% past 7 days<1%
Chance over time
- Grijalva97%
- Butierez<1%
Chance over time, past month: Grijalva from 96% to 97%; Butierez from 5% to <1%.
| Date | Grijalva | Butierez |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 99% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 99% | <1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | <1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Grijalva by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Grijalva +27.2 to Grijalva +47.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Butierez wins | <1% |
| Grijalva by 0–10 | <1% |
| Grijalva by 10–20 | <1% |
| Grijalva by 20–25 | 6% |
| Grijalva by 25–30 | 8% |
| Grijalva by 30–35 | 20% |
| Grijalva by 35–40 | 28% |
| Grijalva by 40–45 | 22% |
| Grijalva by 45–50 | 13% |
| Grijalva by 50+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Adelita S. Grijalva (D)
More in Arizona
Ballot measures
- Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 55%
- Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?Yes 63%
- Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?Yes 68%
- Arizona passes traffic camera ballot measure?Yes 88%