AZ-02 House forecast
Likely Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Crane 72% chance
- Jonathan Nez (D)+2% past 7 days27%
- Eli Crane (R)-2% past 7 days72%
Chance over time
- Nez27%
- Crane72%
Chance over time, past month: Nez from 28% to 27%; Crane from 69% to 72%.
| Date | Nez | Crane |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 28% | 69% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 35% | 63% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 31% | 69% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 26% | 77% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 27% | 72% |
Projected margin
Most likely Crane by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Crane +11.6 to Nez +2.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Crane by 18+ | 1% |
| Crane by 15–18 | 5% |
| Crane by 12–15 | 4% |
| Crane by 9–12 | 4% |
| Crane by 6–9 | 18% |
| Crane by 3–6 | 19% |
| Crane by 0–3 | 31% |
| Nez by 0–3 | 12% |
| Nez by 3–6 | 3% |
| Nez by 6+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Elijah Crane (R)
More in Arizona
Ballot measures
- Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 55%
- Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?Yes 63%
- Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?Yes 68%
- Arizona passes traffic camera ballot measure?Yes 88%