AZ-09 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Gosar 95% chance
- Dani Sterbinsky (D)0% past 7 days4%
- Paul Gosar (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Sterbinsky4%
- Gosar95%
Chance over time, past month: Sterbinsky from 4% to 4%; Gosar from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Sterbinsky | Gosar |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 94% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Gosar by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Gosar +29.7 to Gosar +8.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Gosar by 35+ | 6% |
| Gosar by 30–35 | 4% |
| Gosar by 25–30 | 6% |
| Gosar by 20–25 | 20% |
| Gosar by 15–20 | 37% |
| Gosar by 10–15 | 15% |
| Gosar by 5–10 | 6% |
| Gosar by 0–5 | 1% |
| Sterbinsky wins | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Paul A. Gosar (R)
More in Arizona
Ballot measures
- Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 55%
- Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?Yes 63%
- Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?Yes 68%
- Arizona passes traffic camera ballot measure?Yes 88%