AZ-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Stanton 96% chance
- Greg Stanton (D)-1% past 7 days96%
- Zuhdi Jasser (R)+1% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Stanton96%
- Jasser5%
Chance over time, past month: Stanton from 95% to 96%; Jasser from 6% to 5%.
| Date | Stanton | Jasser |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
Projected margin
Most likely Stanton by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Stanton +7.4 to Stanton +26.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jasser wins | 4% |
| Stanton by 0–5 | 1% |
| Stanton by 5–10 | 11% |
| Stanton by 10–15 | 15% |
| Stanton by 15–20 | 19% |
| Stanton by 20–25 | 37% |
| Stanton by 25–30 | 8% |
| Stanton by 30–35 | 1% |
| Stanton by 35+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Greg Stanton (D)
More in Arizona
Ballot measures
- Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 55%
- Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?Yes 63%
- Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?Yes 68%
- Arizona passes traffic camera ballot measure?Yes 88%