ME-02 House forecast
Lean Rep2024 linesProjected flip D → R
Polls close
LePage 56% chance
- Matthew Dunlap (D)+6% past 7 days44%
- Paul LePage (R)-6% past 7 days56%
Chance over time
- Dunlap44%
- LePage56%
Chance over time, past month: Dunlap from 42% to 44%; LePage from 57% to 56%.
| Date | Dunlap | LePage |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 42% | 60% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 37% | 63% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 37% | 63% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 38% | 63% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 44% | 56% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Dunlap wins, Democrats win the House in 96 of 100. Where LePage wins, in 88 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Jared F. Golden (D)
- Projected flip from Democrats to Republicans: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.