IA Senate forecast
Lean Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Hinson 58% chance
- Josh Turek (D)-1% past 7 days42%
- Ashley Hinson (R)+1% past 7 days58%
Chance over time
- Turek42%
- Hinson58%
Key moments
· No single event explains this move
No clear trigger found
No candidate exit, major endorsement, court ruling or widely reported poll in the Iowa Senate race was found in established reporting for these days.
Chance over time, past month: Turek from 40% to 42%; Hinson from 59% to 58%.
| Date | Turek | Hinson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 49% | 52% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 42% | 59% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 43% | 57% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 42% | 57% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 42% | 58% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 8 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Turek wins, Democrats win the Senate in 85 of 100. Where Hinson wins, in 50 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.