IA Governor forecast
Safe DemProjected flip R → D
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Sand 89% chance
- Rob Sand (D)-2% past 7 days89%
- Zach Lahn (R)+2% past 7 days12%
Chance over time
- Sand89%
- Lahn12%
Key moments
· No single event explains this move
No clear event found
No candidate entry or exit, major endorsement, or widely reported general-election poll was found for the Iowa governor's race from April 9 to April 17, 2026.
Chance over time, past month: Sand from 82% to 89%; Lahn from 19% to 12%.
| Date | Sand | Lahn |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 82% | 19% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 83% | 14% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 85% | 14% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 91% | 10% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 89% | 12% |
Projected margin
Most likely Sand by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Lahn +0.8 to Sand +12
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lahn by 12+ | <1% |
| Lahn by 9–12 | <1% |
| Lahn by 6–9 | 1% |
| Lahn by 3–6 | 2% |
| Lahn by 0–3 | 9% |
| Sand by 0–3 | 21% |
| Sand by 3–6 | 19% |
| Sand by 6–9 | 21% |
| Sand by 9–12 | 13% |
| Sand by 12+ | 13% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Republicans.
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.