IA-02 House forecast
Lean Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
James 59% chance
- Lindsay James (D)+2% past 7 days59%
- Joe Mitchell (R)-2% past 7 days41%
Chance over time
- James59%
- Mitchell41%
Chance over time, past month: James from 54% to 59%; Mitchell from 48% to 41%.
| Date | James | Mitchell |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 52% | 48% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 53% | 46% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 54% | 47% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 57% | 43% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 59% | 41% |
Projected margin
Most likely James by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Mitchell +7.6 to James +9.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mitchell by 12+ | <1% |
| Mitchell by 9–12 | 3% |
| Mitchell by 6–9 | 15% |
| Mitchell by 3–6 | 12% |
| Mitchell by 0–3 | 17% |
| James by 0–3 | 14% |
| James by 3–6 | 19% |
| James by 6–9 | 9% |
| James by 9–12 | 6% |
| James by 12+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where James wins, Democrats win the House in 95 of 100. Where Mitchell wins, in 86 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Ashley Hinson (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.