IA-03 House forecast
Likely Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Garriott 82% chance
- Sarah Trone Garriott (D)+3% past 7 days82%
- Zach Nunn (R)-4% past 7 days18%
Chance over time
- Garriott82%
- Nunn18%
Chance over time, past month: Garriott from 77% to 82%; Nunn from 24% to 18%.
| Date | Garriott | Nunn |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 77% | 24% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 77% | 24% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 77% | 22% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 79% | 22% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 82% | 18% |
Projected margin
Most likely Garriott by 9–12 · 8 in 10: Nunn +4.7 to Garriott +14.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Nunn by 6+ | 5% |
| Nunn by 3–6 | 11% |
| Nunn by 0–3 | 5% |
| Garriott by 0–3 | 6% |
| Garriott by 3–6 | 17% |
| Garriott by 6–9 | 16% |
| Garriott by 9–12 | 18% |
| Garriott by 12–15 | 14% |
| Garriott by 15–18 | 7% |
| Garriott by 18+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Garriott wins, Democrats win the House in 94 of 100. Where Nunn wins, in 82 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Zachary Nunn (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.