TX-02 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Toth 93% chance
- Shaun Finnie (D)-2% past 7 days7%
- Steve Toth (R)+2% past 7 days93%
Chance over time
- Finnie7%
- Toth93%
Chance over time, past month: Finnie from 7% to 7%; Toth from 94% to 93%.
| Date | Finnie | Toth |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
Projected margin
Most likely Toth by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Toth +22 to Toth +3.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Toth by 30+ | 1% |
| Toth by 25–30 | 1% |
| Toth by 20–25 | 13% |
| Toth by 15–20 | 24% |
| Toth by 10–15 | 40% |
| Toth by 5–10 | 10% |
| Toth by 0–5 | 4% |
| Finnie wins | 7% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-02 member was elected on different lines.