TX-14 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Weber 96% chance
- Thurman Bartie (D)-1% past 7 days2%
- Randy Weber (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Bartie3%
- Weber96%
Chance over time, past month: Bartie from 5% to 3%; Weber from 95% to 96%.
| Date | Bartie | Weber |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Weber by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Weber +27.4 to Weber +6.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Weber by 35+ | 2% |
| Weber by 30–35 | 5% |
| Weber by 25–30 | 6% |
| Weber by 20–25 | 13% |
| Weber by 15–20 | 28% |
| Weber by 10–15 | 21% |
| Weber by 5–10 | 21% |
| Weber by 0–5 | 3% |
| Bartie wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-14 member was elected on different lines.