TX-37 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Casar 98% chance
- Greg Casar (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Lauren Peña (R)+1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Casar98%
- Peña2%
Chance over time, past month: Casar from 97% to 98%; Peña from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Casar | Peña |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Casar by 60–65 · 8 in 10: Casar +50.4 to Casar +72.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Peña wins | 1% |
| Casar by 0–35 | 1% |
| Casar by 35–45 | 5% |
| Casar by 45–50 | 2% |
| Casar by 50–55 | 16% |
| Casar by 55–60 | 18% |
| Casar by 60–65 | 21% |
| Casar by 65–70 | 20% |
| Casar by 70–75 | 11% |
| Casar by 75+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-37 member was elected on different lines.