TX-16 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Texas, 9:00 PM ET in the El Paso area
Escobar 97% chance
- Veronica Escobar (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Adam Bauman (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Escobar98%
- Bauman1%
Chance over time, past month: Escobar from 97% to 98%; Bauman from 2% to 1%.
| Date | Escobar | Bauman |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Escobar by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Escobar +25.8 to Escobar +42.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bauman wins | <1% |
| Escobar by 0–5 | <1% |
| Escobar by 5–15 | 1% |
| Escobar by 15–20 | 1% |
| Escobar by 20–25 | 3% |
| Escobar by 25–30 | 30% |
| Escobar by 30–35 | 25% |
| Escobar by 35–40 | 21% |
| Escobar by 40–45 | 14% |
| Escobar by 45+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-16 member was elected on different lines.