KY-02 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 6:00 PM local time: 6:00 PM ET in most of Kentucky, 7:00 PM ET in the Central-time west
Guthrie 96% chance
- Megan Wingfield (D)-1% past 7 days3%
- Brett Guthrie (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Wingfield3%
- Guthrie96%
Chance over time, past month: Wingfield from 5% to 3%; Guthrie from 95% to 96%.
| Date | Wingfield | Guthrie |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Guthrie by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Guthrie +49.1 to Guthrie +27
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Guthrie by 50+ | 9% |
| Guthrie by 45–50 | 4% |
| Guthrie by 40–45 | 20% |
| Guthrie by 35–40 | 25% |
| Guthrie by 30–35 | 21% |
| Guthrie by 25–30 | 18% |
| Guthrie by 20–25 | 2% |
| Guthrie by 10–20 | 1% |
| Guthrie by 0–10 | 1% |
| Wingfield wins | <1% |