KY-06 House forecast
Lean Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Alvarado 66% chance
- Zach Dembo (D)+1% past 7 days35%
- Ralph Alvarado (R)-1% past 7 days66%
Chance over time
- Dembo35%
- Alvarado66%
Chance over time, past month: Dembo from 26% to 35%; Alvarado from 74% to 66%.
| Date | Dembo | Alvarado |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 26% | 74% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 28% | 75% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 28% | 73% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 34% | 67% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 35% | 66% |
Projected margin
Most likely Alvarado by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Alvarado +10.7 to Dembo +5.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Alvarado by 18+ | 3% |
| Alvarado by 15–18 | 1% |
| Alvarado by 12–15 | 3% |
| Alvarado by 9–12 | 6% |
| Alvarado by 6–9 | 16% |
| Alvarado by 3–6 | 15% |
| Alvarado by 0–3 | 19% |
| Dembo by 0–3 | 18% |
| Dembo by 3–6 | 11% |
| Dembo by 6+ | 7% |