KY-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Gallrein 96% chance
- Melissa Strange (D)+1% past 7 days4%
- Ed Gallrein (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Strange4%
- Gallrein96%
Chance over time, past month: Strange from 1% to 4%; Gallrein from 98% to 96%.
| Date | Strange | Gallrein |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 1% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Gallrein by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Gallrein +34.4 to Gallrein +15.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Gallrein by 45+ | 2% |
| Gallrein by 40–45 | 1% |
| Gallrein by 35–40 | 5% |
| Gallrein by 30–35 | 10% |
| Gallrein by 25–30 | 26% |
| Gallrein by 20–25 | 32% |
| Gallrein by 15–20 | 14% |
| Gallrein by 5–15 | 5% |
| Gallrein by 0–5 | 3% |
| Strange wins | 1% |