NM-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Stansbury 96% chance
- Melanie Stansbury (D)-1% past 7 days96%
- Didi Okpareke (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Stansbury96%
- Okpareke2%
Chance over time, past month: Stansbury from 94% to 96%; Okpareke from 6% to 2%.
| Date | Stansbury | Okpareke |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Stansbury by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Stansbury +16.5 to Stansbury +34.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Okpareke wins | <1% |
| Stansbury by 0–10 | 2% |
| Stansbury by 10–15 | 2% |
| Stansbury by 15–20 | 21% |
| Stansbury by 20–25 | 28% |
| Stansbury by 25–30 | 22% |
| Stansbury by 30–35 | 19% |
| Stansbury by 35–40 | 3% |
| Stansbury by 40+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Melanie A. Stansbury (D)