NM-02 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Vasquez 92% chance
- Gabe Vasquez (D)-1% past 7 days92%
- Greg Cunningham (R)+1% past 7 days8%
Chance over time
- Vasquez92%
- Cunningham8%
Chance over time, past month: Vasquez from 94% to 92%; Cunningham from 8% to 8%.
| Date | Vasquez | Cunningham |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 92% | 8% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 92% | 8% |
Projected margin
Most likely Vasquez by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Vasquez +3.3 to Vasquez +25
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cunningham by 5+ | 4% |
| Cunningham by 0–5 | 4% |
| Vasquez by 0–5 | 3% |
| Vasquez by 5–10 | 17% |
| Vasquez by 10–15 | 24% |
| Vasquez by 15–20 | 19% |
| Vasquez by 20–25 | 18% |
| Vasquez by 25+ | 11% |
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Vasquez wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Cunningham wins, in 78 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D)