NM Governor forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Haaland 95% chance
- Deb Haaland (D)-1% past 7 days95%
- Gregg Hull (R)-1% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Haaland95%
- Hull5%
Chance over time, past month: Haaland from 95% to 95%; Hull from 5% to 5%.
| Date | Haaland | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 6% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
Projected margin
Most likely Haaland by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Haaland +2.4 to Haaland +23.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hull by 5+ | <1% |
| Hull by 0–5 | 8% |
| Haaland by 0–5 | 4% |
| Haaland by 5–10 | 24% |
| Haaland by 10–15 | 34% |
| Haaland by 15–20 | 10% |
| Haaland by 20–25 | 16% |
| Haaland by 25+ | 4% |