NM-03 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Fernández 97% chance
- Teresa Leger Fernández (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Martin Zamora (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Fernández97%
- Zamora3%
Chance over time, past month: Fernández from 94% to 97%; Zamora from 6% to 3%.
| Date | Fernández | Zamora |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 93% | 7% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Fernández by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Fernández +9 to Fernández +29.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Zamora wins | <1% |
| Fernández by 0–5 | 5% |
| Fernández by 5–10 | 6% |
| Fernández by 10–15 | 11% |
| Fernández by 15–20 | 27% |
| Fernández by 20–25 | 24% |
| Fernández by 25–30 | 18% |
| Fernández by 30–35 | 5% |
| Fernández by 35+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)