NH-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Most towns at 7:00 PM ET; some stay open until 8:00 PM ET
Shaheen 97% chance
- Stefany Shaheen (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Anthony DiLorenzo (R)0% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Shaheen97%
- DiLorenzo4%
Chance over time, past month: Shaheen from 91% to 97%; DiLorenzo from 7% to 4%.
| Date | Shaheen | DiLorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 91% | 7% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 91% | 7% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 94% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Shaheen by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Shaheen +2.6 to Shaheen +21.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| DiLorenzo by 5+ | 4% |
| DiLorenzo by 0–5 | 3% |
| Shaheen by 0–5 | 5% |
| Shaheen by 5–10 | 25% |
| Shaheen by 10–15 | 25% |
| Shaheen by 15–20 | 27% |
| Shaheen by 20–25 | 7% |
| Shaheen by 25+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Chris Pappas (D)