NH Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close . Most towns at 7:00 PM ET; some stay open until 8:00 PM ET
Pappas 91% chance
- Chris Pappas (D)+2% past 7 days91%
- John E. Sununu (R)-3% past 7 days10%
Chance over time
- Pappas91%
- Sununu10%
Chance over time, past month: Pappas from 82% to 91%; Sununu from 19% to 10%.
| Date | Pappas | Sununu |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 85% | 15% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 87% | 14% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 90% | 11% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 89% | 13% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 91% | 10% |
Projected margin
Most likely Pappas by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Sununu +1.7 to Pappas +15.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sununu by 6+ | 4% |
| Sununu by 3–6 | 3% |
| Sununu by 0–3 | 6% |
| Pappas by 0–3 | 10% |
| Pappas by 3–6 | 16% |
| Pappas by 6–9 | 19% |
| Pappas by 9–12 | 16% |
| Pappas by 12–15 | 14% |
| Pappas by 15–18 | 7% |
| Pappas by 18+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 4 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Pappas wins, Democrats win the Senate in 69 of 100. Where Sununu wins, in 26 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Democrats.