MN Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Flanagan 88% chance
- Peggy Flanagan (D)0% past 7 days88%
- Michele Tafoya (R)0% past 7 days13%
Chance over time
- Flanagan88%
- Tafoya13%
Chance over time, past month: Flanagan from 93% to 88%; Tafoya from 9% to 13%.
| Date | Flanagan | Tafoya |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 93% | 9% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 92% | 9% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 88% | 12% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 88% | 13% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 88% | 13% |
Projected margin
Most likely Flanagan by 5–10 · 8 in 10: Tafoya +2.4 to Flanagan +18.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Tafoya by 5+ | 3% |
| Tafoya by 0–5 | 14% |
| Flanagan by 0–5 | 23% |
| Flanagan by 5–10 | 32% |
| Flanagan by 10–15 | 14% |
| Flanagan by 15–20 | 6% |
| Flanagan by 20–25 | 6% |
| Flanagan by 25+ | 2% |