MN-03 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Morrison 97% chance
- Kelly Morrison (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Tyler Bass (R)-1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Morrison97%
- Bass3%
Chance over time, past month: Morrison from 95% to 97%; Bass from 5% to 3%.
| Date | Morrison | Bass |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Morrison by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Morrison +16.4 to Morrison +38.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bass wins | <1% |
| Morrison by 0–5 | 4% |
| Morrison by 5–15 | 2% |
| Morrison by 15–20 | 13% |
| Morrison by 20–25 | 7% |
| Morrison by 25–30 | 13% |
| Morrison by 30–35 | 39% |
| Morrison by 35–40 | 14% |
| Morrison by 40–45 | 4% |
| Morrison by 45+ | 2% |