MA-06 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Koh 97% chance
- Dan Koh (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Micah Jones (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Koh97%
- Jones3%
Chance over time, past month: Koh from 96% to 97%; Jones from 3% to 3%.
| Date | Koh | Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Koh by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Koh +25.7 to Koh +42.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jones wins | 2% |
| Koh by 0–5 | <1% |
| Koh by 5–15 | <1% |
| Koh by 15–20 | 2% |
| Koh by 20–25 | 4% |
| Koh by 25–30 | 15% |
| Koh by 30–35 | 37% |
| Koh by 35–40 | 24% |
| Koh by 40–45 | 12% |
| Koh by 45+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Seth Moulton (D)
More in Massachusetts
Ballot measures
- Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?Yes 59%