MA-03 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Trahan 97% chance
- Lori Trahan (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Gary Grossi (R)-1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Trahan97%
- Grossi3%
Chance over time, past month: Trahan from 96% to 97%; Grossi from 2% to 3%.
| Date | Trahan | Grossi |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Trahan by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Trahan +27.6 to Trahan +44.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Grossi wins | <1% |
| Trahan by 0–5 | <1% |
| Trahan by 5–15 | <1% |
| Trahan by 15–20 | 1% |
| Trahan by 20–25 | 5% |
| Trahan by 25–30 | 8% |
| Trahan by 30–35 | 21% |
| Trahan by 35–40 | 33% |
| Trahan by 40–45 | 25% |
| Trahan by 45+ | 7% |