MA-09 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Keating 97% chance
- Bill Keating (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Tyler MacAllister (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Keating97%
- MacAllister3%
Chance over time, past month: Keating from 95% to 97%; MacAllister from 5% to 3%.
| Date | Keating | MacAllister |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Keating by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Keating +15.4 to Keating +34
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| MacAllister wins | <1% |
| Keating by 0–5 | <1% |
| Keating by 5–10 | <1% |
| Keating by 10–15 | 9% |
| Keating by 15–20 | 11% |
| Keating by 20–25 | 25% |
| Keating by 25–30 | 30% |
| Keating by 30–35 | 18% |
| Keating by 35+ | 6% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. William R. Keating (D)
More in Massachusetts
Ballot measures
- Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?Yes 59%