MA-08 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Lynch 97% chance
- Stephen Lynch (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Robert Burke (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Lynch97%
- Burke2%
Chance over time, past month: Lynch from 98% to 97%; Burke from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Lynch | Burke |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Lynch by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Lynch +19.1 to Lynch +53.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Burke wins | 7% |
| Lynch by 0–15 | 2% |
| Lynch by 15–25 | 3% |
| Lynch by 25–30 | 10% |
| Lynch by 30–35 | 5% |
| Lynch by 35–40 | 4% |
| Lynch by 40–45 | 29% |
| Lynch by 45–50 | 15% |
| Lynch by 50–55 | 22% |
| Lynch by 55+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Stephen F. Lynch (D)
More in Massachusetts
Ballot measures
- Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?Yes 59%