PA-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Dean 96% chance
- Madeleine Dean (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Aurora Stuski (R)0% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Dean96%
- Stuski4%
Chance over time, past month: Dean from 95% to 96%; Stuski from 6% to 4%.
| Date | Dean | Stuski |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Dean by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Dean +13.5 to Dean +37.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Stuski wins | 1% |
| Dean by 0–10 | 5% |
| Dean by 10–15 | 5% |
| Dean by 15–20 | 5% |
| Dean by 20–25 | 21% |
| Dean by 25–30 | 21% |
| Dean by 30–35 | 25% |
| Dean by 35–40 | 12% |
| Dean by 40+ | 3% |