VT-AL House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Balint 98% chance
- Becca Balint (D)+1% past 7 days98%
- Gerald Malloy (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Balint98%
- Malloy1%
Chance over time, past month: Balint from 96% to 98%; Malloy from 5% to 1%.
| Date | Balint | Malloy |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 94% | 5% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Balint by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Balint +26.8 to Balint +51.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Malloy wins | 3% |
| Balint by 0–15 | <1% |
| Balint by 15–25 | <1% |
| Balint by 25–30 | 18% |
| Balint by 30–35 | 13% |
| Balint by 35–40 | 16% |
| Balint by 40–45 | 20% |
| Balint by 45–50 | 18% |
| Balint by 50–55 | 13% |
| Balint by 55+ | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Becca Balint (D)