VA-05 House forecast
Lean Rep2024 lines
Polls close
McGuire 66% chance
- Tom Perriello (D)+11% past 7 days34%
- John McGuire (R)-11% past 7 days66%
Chance over time
- Perriello34%
- McGuire66%
Chance over time, past month: Perriello from 17% to 34%; McGuire from 84% to 66%.
| Date | Perriello | McGuire |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 17% | 83% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 23% | 77% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 22% | 78% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 24% | 77% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 34% | 66% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Perriello wins, Democrats win the House in 97 of 100. Where McGuire wins, in 89 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. John J. McGuire III (R)
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