VA Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close
Warner 98% chance
- Mark Warner (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Bert Mizusawa (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Warner98%
- Mizusawa2%
Chance over time, past month: Warner from 98% to 98%; Mizusawa from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Warner | Mizusawa |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Warner by 21+ · 8 in 10: Warner +5.6 to Warner +21
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mizusawa by 3+ | <1% |
| Mizusawa by 0–3 | 2% |
| Warner by 0–3 | 3% |
| Warner by 3–6 | 6% |
| Warner by 6–9 | 2% |
| Warner by 9–12 | 3% |
| Warner by 12–15 | 19% |
| Warner by 15–18 | 7% |
| Warner by 18–21 | 16% |
| Warner by 21+ | 42% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Warner wins, Democrats win the Senate in 65 of 100. Where Mizusawa wins, in 18 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Democrats.
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