RI Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close
Reed 98% chance
- Jack Reed (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Raymond McKay (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Reed98%
- McKay2%
Chance over time, past month: Reed from 96% to 98%; McKay from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Reed | McKay |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Reed by 30+ · 8 in 10: Reed +17.9 to Reed +30
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| McKay wins | 2% |
| Reed by 0–5 | 2% |
| Reed by 5–10 | 1% |
| Reed by 10–15 | 1% |
| Reed by 15–20 | 8% |
| Reed by 20–25 | 13% |
| Reed by 25–30 | 22% |
| Reed by 30+ | 52% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Reed wins, Democrats win the Senate in 65 of 100. Where McKay wins, in 17 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Democrats.